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“Nothing Gold Can Stay”…..

  …or so says Robert Frost’s famous poem. But the whole market wonders if Goldman Sachs can “stay gold”, following last week’s shocker headline that the Securities and Exchange Commission is charging the financial giant with fraud.

 The SEC is alleging fraud on the part of Goldman Sachs, in relation to their actions surrounding subprime mortgages and Collateralized Debt Obligations. Here’s an analogy of how the SEC sees Goldman’s actions: Imagine that you asked a builder to construct a house with materials that you know will eventually cause the house to light on fire and burn to the ground. In the meantime, you place a bet that the house will burn down, and also take out fire insurance on the house for when it does burn down. The house is built – which you then sell to an unsuspecting buyer. Sooner or later, sure enough, the house burns down. You make multiple profits…but it’s just not right.

 The SEC is saying that Goldman acted similarly with subprime mortgages and other risky debts, profiting enormously from the failure of financial instruments that they knew were designed and destined to fail. How the story will play out remains to be seen – but the stunning allegations caused Stocks in the US and abroad to plunge lower. Stocks had been on a nice run higher based on a reasonably good kick off to earnings season, but as money flowed out of Stocks on the news, it was parked in Bonds – helping home loan rates improve.

 In other news, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) said that it would be “premature” to give an end date to the recession based on the economic data seen so far. And while some of the statistics may show that the economy has improved in many areas – the labor market continues to be very weak. It also remains to be seen how housing will fare without stimulus, and additionally, while corporate earnings seem to be on the rise, it is not yet known whether that is from improving business and higher revenues, or rather due to cost-cutting measures.

 There was some good news last week on the housing front, housing Starts for March came in higher than estimated and at the highest level since November 2008. Building Permits – an indication of future construction – also came in higher.

 Keep in mind, however, that Housing Starts can be a double edged sword…as seeing more new construction of homes could be representative of builders’ sentiment and speculation rather than actual purchases. Hopefully the new construction happening will be bought up, and not eventually become a drag on housing by adding to the already heavy load of inventory

“THE FUTURE INFLUENCES THE PRESENT JUST AS MUCH AS THE PAST.”

While getting your mind around that brain-bender from philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche might be a bit of labor…the point of influence is very well-taken. And while the present health of the housing market is certainly influenced by the present health of the labor market – last week brought a bit of welcome good news on the housing front. The Pending Home Sales number came in with a surprising 8.2% boost in February. Although the report is only a prediction of sales that will close in a month or two, it’s a good sign for the housing market…not to mention that it’s very good news for those homebuyers who are now under contract in time to take advantage of the Homebuyer Tax Credit before the deadline! Remember, contracts must be in place by the end of this month – April 30th – in order to qualify for the tax credit. But indeed, the health of housing will be influenced by the labor market – and a lot of work remains to be done in that area of the economy. As you can see in the chart below, the national Unemployment Rate remains at 9.7%, but has moved below the 10.1% rate seen in October. Although the employment picture overall still needs to see some real improvement, there’s still good reason to believe that housing will continue to stabilize over the next year, and then begin to move modestly higher. With home loan rates having improved this past week – buyers still have a chance to get into a great home loan rate…and get the Homebuyers Tax Credit before the deadline of April 30th.

Jobs, Interest Rates and the Economy…

The biggest increase in jobs in three years pushed interest rates to their highest level since before the worst days of the credit crisis in 2008. With the stock market closed for Good Friday, investors had a shortened day of trading in the bond market to react to the Labor Department’s report that employers added the most jobs in March since before the recession began in December 2007. Treasury prices fell after the report, sending their yields higher. Bond prices tend to fall as investors’ confidence grows and demand for safe-haven investments wanes.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.94 percent from 3.87 percent late Thursday, its highest level since last June and the latest sign of confidence that the U.S. economy is recovering. The yield on the 10-year note is tied to many kinds of consumer loans. The increase could raise borrowing costs for mortgages and other debt.

The bond market seems to have taken it as a very positive number, Stock futures contracts rose in an abbreviated session of electronic trading. U.S. investors will get their first taste of how the upbeat report will drive stocks when trading in Asia begins late Sunday. Dow Jones industrial average futures and Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures each rose about 0.3 percent.

The yield on the 10-year note is approaching 4 percent, a level that hasn’t been seen since October 2008, just before the financial crisis peaked. The 10-year’s yield went as high as 4.09 percent that month, before plummeting as low as 2.06 percent in December 2008 as the credit crisis erupted and investors poured money into bonds as they cut back their exposure to risk.

Friday’s trading was the closest the yield has been to 4 percent since June, when it reached 3.96 percent.

“I Will Act Now. I Will Act Now.”

The great author and speaker Og Mandino once said, “I will act now. I will act now. I will act now.” This is great advice for prospective homebuyers over the next 45 days, as two key government programs that have kept home ownership more affordable than ever wind down to their completion. First, the Federal Reserve’s Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) purchase program will come to an end on March 31, just two weeks away! Without this program home loan rates could have been at least 1.00% higher…and potentially even higher…over the last year. Throughout 2009, the Federal Reserve was the primary buyer for MBS, purchasing as much as 80% of the supply in a given month. When this program ends, a lack of willing buyers will likely cause MBS prices to drop and rates to rise as a result. The second shot will come on April 30th, which is the deadline for purchasers to get under contract to qualify for the Home Buyer Tax Credit program, which has been providing a tax credit of up to $8,000 to first time homebuyers and up to $6,500 to repeat purchasers. Just How Much Will Waiting Cost? While no one knows for certain what the future holds, two things appear clear. Home loan rates will likely be higher in the future, and free money from the government will be gone. These deadlines will affect both affordability to purchase and the opportunity to refi. In a recent Wall Street Journal article, it was estimated that 37% of all borrowers with a 30-year fixed rate have interest rates of 6% or higher. The article also quotes Credit Suisse that more than half could lower their rate by nearly 0.75%. For prospective homebuyers, any increase in interest rates erodes your purchasing power. In other words, a 1% increase in rate represents an approximate decline in purchasing power by 10%. For example, if rates increase by 1%, people who qualify for a $200,000 purchase price today may only qualify for a purchase price of $180,000 afterwards. If you or anyone you know is looking to purchase or refinance a home, waiting could be costly! Act now…so you can save later!

IT AIN’T OVER TIL IT’S OVER.” Yogi Berra.

Chart: The Fed’s Purchase of MBS (By Month)

And whether you find those words deeply wise or simply puzzling…The Fed has told us repeatedly that their massive purchasing program of Mortgage Backed Securities is just about over – and this translates to home loan rates rising in the near future.

As you can see in the chart above, the amounts of Mortgage Backed Securities the Fed is purchasing are slowly dwindling, as the program is set to wrap up by March 31st, and are clearly trying to ration out the remaining portion. Last week, the Fed purchased $11 Billion in Mortgage Backed Securities, which leaves them with $66 Billion to spend out of their original $1.25 Trillion allotment. So about 95% of the total has already been spent and has purchased about 3 out of every 4 home loans during the past year. When such a large buyer leaves the market, it is very likely that prices will worsen.

This is very important because as the Fed has less money to last through the remaining months of the program, their ability to keep home loan rates low via their purchasing power will wane. And those who can take advantage of currently low home loan rates do not wait, as the clock on these historically low rates is ticking.

———————–

Also last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke provided a speech on a number of topics, perhaps the most important of these being switching the Fed’s benchmark from the commonly watched and monitored Fed Funds Rate, to a new benchmark of “interest paid on excess reserves”. Banks are required to keep money on reserve with the Fed and may, from time to time, have an excess in those reserves, which the Fed can pay interest on.

Since the Fed Funds Rate is only a “target rate”, banks can still lend money to other bank overnight at their own negotiated rate. Sometimes near the end of the trading day, banks have been lending their excess reserves out overnight for a rate that differs from the Fed Funds Rate, but is higher than interest on those reserves from The Fed.  This undermines the Fed’s ability to set a reliable benchmark. 

The Fed wants to fix this by using the amount of interest they pay as the new benchmark, since the Fed has total control of this rate, which should be right at or just under the Fed Funds Rate. 

There is one major take-away from this discussion – it appears that the Fed is getting their ducks in a row as they prepare to push interest rates higher. And when they do increase rates, the Fed does not want any obstacles that may undermine their plan.

The Clock is Ticking! Time is Running Out for Significant Savings!

Attention home buyers! Waiting to buy a home could cost you nearly $20,000 or more over a seven-year period if you time your purchase incorrectly. While the actual impact will vary depending on purchase price, the impact will certainly be significant because of stimulus programs scheduled to end in the coming months. Economic turmoil and the real estate bubble have created significant opportunity for all those seeking to capitalize on the situation at hand. YOU Magazine will address the real estate purchase market and what people interested in both buying and selling a home need to know this month to take advantage of the current market conditions. We also consulted with Michael J. Maher of “The Maher Team,” one of the busiest agents in the country who sold 216 homes in 2009. With a degree in mathematics, he knows his numbers and the impact on both buyers and sellers. As little as a few years ago, it would have almost been incomprehensible to expect that actions from Washington would impact decisions involving the purchase and financing of real estate. Well, that was then and this is now and the decisions people make or don’t make stand to impact wallets across the country.”

“Before You Buy – Things to Consider The pressure is on to buy in the first quarter of 2010, so what should buyers focus on before pulling the trigger? Maher recommends that buyers focus on three things that are either expensive to fix later or unable to change without buying another home. His three primary areas to focus on are what he calls the three Ls: “Location, Lot and Layout.” When considering location, use technology like GoogleMaps™ before visiting a home to save both time and gas. Mapping allows you to view the property from different angles, see if the home is on a busy street, or if it offers the other requirements you need. For example, if you need a large yard where the kids or dogs can play, a tool like GoogleMaps™ will help you eliminate some homes immediately. While it is relatively easy to get caught up in the aesthetics, don’t do it. Overlook items you can change later like paint, carpet and other cosmetic details. Narrow your focus down to two or three homes and “all things being equal, focus on location, lot and layout.

” Selling a Home? If you are selling a home and want to make sure you can get it off the market for time crunched buyers, remember that today is what Maher calls a “price war beauty contest.” Sellers need to be focused on having their home priced competitively and making it most appealing upon inspection. Sellers also should consider paying for a home warranty to alleviate any concerns cash-strapped buyers may have about paying for repairs after closing. More than anything else for both buyers and sellers this year, Maher suggests that people not let the money savings opportunities pass them by. “Anyone that qualifies is in a no-lose situation – they are buying at the bottom of the market, economically, historically, seasonally, market-wise and interest rate-wise. The perfect storm has arrived and the pearls and treasures have floated to the surface.

“Gifts from the Federal Reserve Are on the Clock, MBS Purchase Program Mortgage rates have been artificially low the past fourteen months due to assistance from the Federal Reserve and their mortgage backed securities purchase program. Regardless of the expert, when asked what the impact has been to lowering rates, the range is from 0.50-1.00% or potentially more. The Federal Reserve reiterated in its January statement that they will be ending the program on March 31st. While it is uncertain to what degree interest rates will immediately rise starting April 1st, the overwhelming trend will be higher. Many experts are predicting that rates will start to rise in advance of April 1st.

Tax Credit

Low mortgage rates are not the only stimulus program ending in less than three months. Credited for boosting a major share of home sales at entry level, first time home buyers have been taking advantage of a tax credit of up to $8,000 for over a year. Repeat purchasers were also given incentive in November with the availability of up to $6,500 in post-closing cash. Tax credit qualifying buyers have until April 30th to get under contract and must close by June 30th. If home buyers miss either date, it will be a costly one.

 

HUD and the FHA Tighten Up

 HUD announced in January that the upfront costs to obtain an FHA mortgage are going up for any applications received April 5th or later. The cost of the up-front mortgage insurance premium (MIP) will increase for all case numbers effective April 5th by 0.50%, from 1.75% to 2.25%.

What Waiting Will Cost You

The costs of missing out on the combined incentives add up quickly for those who fail to act by the deadlines. The first incentive scheduled to end will impact buyers on a monthly basis in the form of higher monthly payments. On a $200,000 mortgage, a 1.00% increase to interest rates could increase a monthly payment by $125 a month or $10,500 over a seven-year period. Obviously, the longer the loan remains in place, the greater the impact of the potential loss. The second potential loss that will be incurred would be waiting to obtain a mortgage guaranteed by the FHA. In the same example of borrowing $200,000, the upfront cost would be an additional $1,000, or .50% of the amount borrowed. While this cost may be financed, the impact to a monthly payment would also be an increase of approximately $5 a month and have to be accounted for later upon the sale of the property. Finally, the third potential cost in waiting will be the end of the tax credit for qualified buyers of a primary residence, up to $6,500 for repeat buyers and up to $8,000 for first time home buyers. Add all this up and the cost of choosing to wait could run up to nearly $20,000 or more depending on the purchase price of a home and the type of mortgage applied for. So, even if someone believes that home prices may fall from where they are today, even with a modest decline in price, the cost of waiting could outstrip any benefit of finding a home for less.

THE NINE MOST TERRIFYING WORDS IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE ARE……

 `I’M FROM THE GOVERNMENT, AND I’M HERE TO HELP.`” Ronald Reagan. And regardless of if those words do indeed terrify you or perhaps give you confidence, the government held center stage last week, with a pivotal Federal Reserve Board Policy Statement, President Obama’s first State of the Union address, and Ben Bernanke’s confirmation for another term as Fed Chairman.

First, let’s start with the Federal Reserve Board, who on the heels of their most recent meeting reiterated their important line, “rates will remain low for an extended period” in their Policy Statement. This tells us that the “carry trade” which has pushed Stocks, Commodities and even Bonds higher may continue, as the driving force of this trade – low interest rates – will likely provide a tailwind. This piece of the Statement was good news for Bonds and home loan rates. However, this was offset by further confirmation that the Fed’s Mortgage Backed Security purchase program will indeed end March 31st, 2010. This was bad news for Bonds and home loan rates, and overrode the “extended period” statement in terms of Bond market and home loan rate action.

Then on Wednesday evening, President Obama delivered his first official State of the Union address, and just like in his initial post-election speech, a big theme was job creation. He discussed a new jobs package, but no details on how much the package would cost or where the resources would be spent have been provided yet. With lots of money already spent with this goal in mind during 2009, and the jobs picture still worsening, hopes are high that future plans will be carefully crafted and targeted to achieve this important goal.

And finally – Ben Bernanke ultimately received a hard-won Senate confirmation for his second four-year term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, but it was a bit of a bruising confirmation fight. Bernanke has been under some criticism as he led the Fed in taking a series of extraordinary measures to protect the economy during the financial crisis, including the decision to help home loan rates stay low during 2009 and early 2010 via the aforementioned $1.25T Mortgage Backed Security purchase plan.

Practical Tips To Enchance Your Financial Freedom

$8,000 Tax Credit Extended and Expanded

With tax season approaching, we decided to focus this edition of our quarterly newsletter on a few tax incentives we think you’ll definitely want to discuss with your tax professional. Feel free to share this newsletter with your friends and loved ones as they prepare their 2009 returns.

Up first is the popular $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers. Originally scheduled to expire on November 30th, 2009, this valuable tax credit of up to 10% of the purchase price or up to $8,000 was extended into 2010 (purchase agreements must be signed by April 30, 2010, and closings must be final by June 30, 2010). The new program was also expanded to include a tax credit of up to $6,500 (or up to 10% of the purchase price) for qualified buyers of a second or “replacement” home under the same deadlines. To qualify, home purchasers must have owned and occupied a primary residence for five consecutive years during the last eight years. Most importantly, the new program significantly increases previous income requirements.

There are other important guidelines to meet in order to qualify, so be sure to discuss your situation with a tax professional. And don’t forget, you can still buy a home before April 30th and qualify – even you’ve already filed your 2009 taxes.

 

Property-Tax Deduction for Non-itemizers

You don’t have to be a new homeowner in 2009 to deduct qualifying property taxes, but prior to 2008, you did have to itemize your taxes in order to receive the benefit – not anymore. Under the new rule, homeowners who don’t itemize can boost their standard-deduction amount by up to $500 if they’re single and up to $1,000 if they’re married and file a joint return to account for property taxes paid during 2009. You’ll need to include a Schedule L with your 2009 tax return, but it’s definitely worth it if you qualify. Talk to your tax preparer and don’t be one of the millions of taxpayers who will claim the standard deduction and miss out on the savings.

Refinancing Points – When you buy a house, you get to deduct (all at once) the points paid to get your mortgage. When you refinance a mortgage, though, you have to deduct the points over the life of the loan. That means you can deduct 1/30th of the points per year if it’s a 30-year mortgage. It’s not a lot of savings, but everything helps when you’re legally trying to lower your tax bill.

Energy and Home Improvements Credits

Homeowners can make energy-conscious purchases that will provide tax benefits when filling out their tax returns for 2009. The new law provides tax credits for making your principal residence more energy efficient and for buying certain energy efficient items.

Residential Energy Property Credit – The new law increases the energy tax credit to 30% of the cost of all qualifying energy-efficient improvements to existing homes. It also raises the maximum credit limit to $1,500 for improvements placed in service in 2009 and 2010. Qualified improvements include adding insulation, energy efficient exterior windows, energy-efficient heating, air conditioning systems, and more. A similar credit was available for 2007, but was not available in 2008. Ask your tax professional about the IRS’ issued guidance, deadlines, and other important qualifying factors for this and the following tax credit.

Nonbusiness Energy Property Credit – You can receive a tax credit of 10% of the purchase price of qualified energy-efficient products installed in the taxpayer’s main home in the United States. The tax credit for home improvement purchases is limited to $500 and applies to the total credit you can claim for all years combined.

Other 2009 Tax Breaks

New Car Purchases – If you bought a qualifying new car or truck ($49,500 or less) between February 16 and December 31st, you may be able to deduct the sales or excise tax. Your income must be less than $125,000 for a single taxpayer or $250,000 for a couple to get the full deduction. The benefit applies to more than one vehicle, as long as all of them qualify and delivery was taken by Dec. 31.

Unemployment Benefits – Unemployment benefits are usually fully taxable. If you received any unemployment benefits at any time during 2009, however, you are eligible to exclude the first $2,400 of these benefits when you file your tax return. For a married couple, the exclusion applies to each spouse separately.

Moving expenses – If you were unemployed in 2009 but you got a new job, moving expenses may be deductible, if you moved more than 50 miles away – and you don’t have to itemize to get it. For 2009, you can deduct the cost of getting yourself and your household goods to that new area 50+ miles away, this includes 24 cents per mile for driving your own vehicle, plus parking fees and tolls.

The Bulls & the Bears duke it out in the market…

If you are losing a tug-of-war with a tiger, give him the rope before he gets to your arm. You can always buy a new rope.” Max Gunther. Such a sweet sentiment…but definitely not one that the markets adopted this week, as both Stocks and Bonds battled back and forth near key technical levels.

The markets were closed on Monday in honor of the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday, but then the Bulls and the Bears in the Bond market spent the first part of the week pushing and pulling Bond prices above and below their 200-Day Moving Average. This level is important because it can often set the stage for price direction for an extended period of time. Bonds were finally able to break above this important level, which was good news for home loan rates.

And the war wasn’t just being waged in Bonds…the Stock market was fighting some technical battles of its own. The Dow and the S&P both tumbled lower, falling beneath their own 50-day Moving Averages. This is very significant, as neither index has closed beneath their 50-day Moving Average since July of 2009. If Stocks are unable to regain their footing and move above this important Moving Average, we may see a continued slide lower in Stocks, which could benefit Bonds and home loan rates.

However, a possible uptick in inflation later this year and an end to the Fed’s Mortgage Backed Security purchase program in March are two important factors that will likely cause home loan rates to worsen in the months ahead. While this week’s Producer Price Index Report (which measures inflation at the wholesale level) was relatively tame, higher than expected inflation was reported in both the UK and India. Reports out of both countries say that they expect levels of inflation to continue higher, but not just in their own countries…they see it around the world as well. Remember, Bonds and inflation are mortal enemies. If Bonds were Superman…inflation would be Kryptonite. And when inflation does begin to tick higher here, it will send home loan rates higher as well.

It’s also important to note that the Fed bought $12B in MBS in the latest week, bringing their purchase total to $1.149T, leaving $101B left to purchase before the end of March. If we have not talked yet about your own home loan situation, let’s be sure to connect very soon as the current low home loan rate environment may soon be a thing of the past.

There was also housing news to note last week, as Housing Starts fell in December, due in part to bad weather throughout the country. However, a look down the road appears more positive, as Building Permits rose significantly in December, to the best level since October 2008.

After all the tug of war this week among traders, home loan rates were able to end the week slightly better than where they began.

New Lending Policies Announced by FHA

If you were listening to the housing news last week, you probably heard a number of reports about lending changes that were announced by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). While many of the news reports were confusing, the truth is pretty clear, and isn’t as bad as some people may have heard.

Overall the measures are intended to help the FHA better manage its risks and strengthen its capital reserves, while still providing home loans to the nation. The good news, as FHA Commissioner David Stevens stated recently, is that “by continuing to provide affordable, responsible mortgage products, FHA will support the housing market’s recovery” and “remain the largest source of home purchase financing for underserved communities.”

What’s Changing?

If you or someone you know is considering an FHA loan, some of these changes may affect you. Here’s a clear, concise rundown of the major changes and what they mean:

1. Increased mortgage insurance. The mortgage insurance premium (referred to as private mortgage insurance by many people) will be increased from 1.75% to 2.25%. This change will add some cost to purchasing a home, but will not overburden consumers since the mortgage insurance is paid over the life of the loan, rather than upfront at closing.

2. New down payment and credit score requirements. According to the new policy, homebuyers who have a credit score of at least 580 may still be able to purchase a home with 3.5% down, but those with credit scores of less than 580 will be required to put down at least 10%. This change is designed to help the FHA balance its risk, while still providing affordable down payments for consumers with a history of good credit and responsibility.

3. Reduced seller concession. Basically, this change means that the person selling the home will now only be able to offer the homebuyer 3% to help defray closing costs, as opposed to 6% under the previous policy.

In addition to these changes, the new policies contain a series of new measures aimed at increasing lender enforcement.

These changes will become effective on April 5, 2010. The bottom line is that the changes will impact some homebuyers more than others. But in the end, the FHA is still committed to providing affordable home loans.

If you’re concerned about your credit score or are worried about what these changes may mean to your specific situation, please call or email to schedule an appointment. There are many different programs available for homebuyers, so finding the right plan for you